Browsing by Subject "Models, Biological"
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Item A Computational Modeling Study of COVID-19 in Bangladesh(The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2020-11-02) Khan, Irtesam Mahmud; Haque, Ubydul; Kaisar, Samiha; Rahman, Mohammad SohelThe COVID-19 pandemic has spread globally. Only three cases in Bangladesh were reported on March 8, 2020. Here, we aim to predict the epidemic progression for 1 year under different scenarios in Bangladesh. We extracted the number of daily confirmed cases from March 8 to July 20, 2020. We considered the suspected-infected-removed (SIR) model and performed a maximum likelihood-based grid search to determine the removal rate (). The transmission was modeled as a stochastic random walk process, and sequential Monte Carlo simulation was run 100 times with bootstrap fits to infer the transmission rate (beta) and R t. According to the simulation, the (real) peak daily incidence of 3,600 would be followed by a steady decline, reaching below 1,000 in late January 2021. Thus, the model predicted that there would still be more than 300 cases/day even after a year. However, with proper interventions, a much steeper decline would be achieved following the peak. If we apply a combined (0.8beta, 1.2) intervention, there would be less than 100 cases by mid-October, only around five odd cases at the beginning of the year 2021, and zero cases in early March 2021. The predicted total number of deaths (in status quo) after 1 year would be 8,533 which would reduce to 3,577 if combined (0.8beta, 1.2) intervention is applied. We have also predicted the ideal number of tests that Bangladesh should perform and based on that redid the whole simulation. The outcome, though worse, would be manageable with interventions according to the simulation.Item Allostery: An Overview of Its History, Concepts, Methods, and Applications(PLOS, 2016-06-02) Liu, Jin; Nussinov, RuthThe concept of allostery has evolved in the past century. In this Editorial, we briefly overview the history of allostery, from the pre-allostery nomenclature era starting with the Bohr effect (1904) to the birth of allostery by Monod and Jacob (1961). We describe the evolution of the allostery concept, from a conformational change in a two-state model (1965, 1966) to dynamic allostery in the ensemble model (1999); from multi-subunit (1965) proteins to all proteins (2004). We highlight the current available methods to study allostery and their applications in studies of conformational mechanisms, disease, and allosteric drug discovery. We outline the challenges and future directions that we foresee. Altogether, this Editorial narrates the history of this fundamental concept in the life sciences, its significance, methodologies to detect and predict it, and its application in a broad range of living systems.Item An epidemic model for non-first-order transmission kinetics(PLOS, 2021-03-11) Mun, Eun-Young; Geng, FengCompartmental models in epidemiology characterize the spread of an infectious disease by formulating ordinary differential equations to quantify the rate of disease progression through subpopulations defined by the Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) scheme. The classic rate law central to the SIR compartmental models assumes that the rate of transmission is first order regarding the infectious agent. The current study demonstrates that this assumption does not always hold and provides a theoretical rationale for a more general rate law, inspired by mixed-order chemical reaction kinetics, leading to a modified mathematical model for non-first-order kinetics. Using observed data from 127 countries during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, we demonstrated that the modified epidemic model is more realistic than the classic, first-order-kinetics based model. We discuss two coefficients associated with the modified epidemic model: transmission rate constant k and transmission reaction order n. While k finds utility in evaluating the effectiveness of control measures due to its responsiveness to external factors, n is more closely related to the intrinsic properties of the epidemic agent, including reproductive ability. The rate law for the modified compartmental SIR model is generally applicable to mixed-kinetics disease transmission with heterogeneous transmission mechanisms. By analyzing early-stage epidemic data, this modified epidemic model may be instrumental in providing timely insight into a new epidemic and developing control measures at the beginning of an outbreak.Item Mechanistic studies of DepR in regulating FK228 biosynthesis in Chromobacterium violaceum no. 968(PLOS, 2018-04-19) Qiao, Yongjian; Tong, Tiantian; Xue, Jiao; Lin, Wenjing; Deng, Zixin; Cheng, Yi-Qiang; Zhu, DongqingDepR, a LysR-type transcriptional regulator encoded by the last gene of the putative min operon (orf21-20-19-depR) located at the downstream region of the anticancer agent FK228 biosynthetic gene cluster in Chromobacterium violaceum No. 968, positively regulates the biosynthesis of FK228. In this work, the mechanism underlining this positive regulation was probed by multiple approaches. Electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA) and DNase I footprinting assay (DIFA) identified a conserved 35-nt DNA segment in the orf21-orf22 intergenic region where the purified recombinant DepR binds to. Quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR) and green fluorescent protein (GFP) promoter probe assays established that transcription of phasin gene orf22 increases in the depR deletion mutant of C. violaceum (CvDeltadepR) compared to the wild-type strain. FK228 production in the orf22-overexpressed strain C. violaceum was reduced compared with the wild-type strain. DepR has two conserved cysteine residues C199 and C208 presumed to form a disulfide bridge upon sensing oxidative stress. C199X point mutations that locked DepR in a reduced conformation decreased the DNA-binding affinity of DepR; T232A or R278A mutation also had a negative impact on DNA binding of DepR. Complementation of CvDeltadepR with any of those versions of depR carrying a single codon mutation was not able to restore FK228 production to the level of wild-type strain. All evidences collectively suggested that DepR positively regulates the biosynthesis of FK228 through indirect metabolic networking.