Repeated measurements of serum urate and mortality: a prospective cohort study of 152,358 individuals over 8 years of follow-up

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal evidence on change of serum urate level with mortality risk is limited as prior studies have a measurement of serum urate at a single time point. Further, the combined effect of serum urate and systemic inflammation on mortality is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 152,358 participants (122,045 men and 30,313 women) with repeated measurements of serum urate in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012 (107,751 participants had all four measurements of serum urate). We used the Cox proportional hazard model to examine the association between cumulative average and changes in serum urate with mortality. The combined effect of serum urate and systemic inflammation was determined by testing the interaction of serum urate and high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) in relation to mortality risk. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.7 (interquartile range 6.3-9.2) years, we identified 7564 all-cause deaths, 1763 CVD deaths, 1706 cancer deaths, and 1572 other deaths. We observed U-shaped relationships of cumulative average serum urate with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and other mortalities. Compared with participants with stable serum urate, those with greater increases in serum urate had a 1.7-fold elevated mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.49-1.84), and those with decreased serum urate had a 2-fold elevated mortality risk (HR = 2.14, 95% CI 1.93-2.37). Participants with both hyperuricemia and hs-CRP had 1.6 times higher mortality, compared with those with low serum urate and hs-CRP levels (HR = 1.56, 95% CI 1.37-1.76). CONCLUSIONS: We observed a U-shaped relationship of long-term cumulative average serum urate with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and other mortalities. Compared with participants with relatively stable serum urate levels, a greater increase or decrease in serum urate was associated with elevated mortality. Participants with both hyperuricemia and high systemic inflammation had the greatest mortality risk compared with those with low serum urate and low hs-CRP levels.